Cement Manufacturers Association (CMA)

58 The shift in generation mix in Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) & Demand (TPED) under different scenarios are presented in Fig.1 & Fig.2 respectively. It can be well observed that the supply of oil has been reduced drastically to 3%(Fig.2) from demand of 22%(Fig.1). Also, the stable Coal demand of 31%(Fig.1) has been reduced in the NDC supply of 28%(Fig.2) thus maintaining its dominant energy stand which is not at all sustainable in the long run. Since Indian economy is projected to remain in a positive growth trajectory until 2050 with substantial contributions by the industry, absolute industrial energy consumption increases even though the industrial sub- sectors become more energy efficient. For example, cement industry in India has been a pro-active industry and has incorporated best technologies to become one of the most energy-efficient industries in the world. The increase in energy demand in well below 2 °C scenario is also contributed majorly by addition of CCS technologies in energy industries (such as cement, iron and steel, fertilizers) [6]. Conclusions India’s climate change targets are admirable and put the ball firmly in the court of the already developed countries to now show that they mean business. This is due to the fact that India has not been a historical contributor to the greenhouse gas emissions — from 1870 to 2019, and its emissions have added up to a miniscule 4 % of the global total. India is lambasted as the world’s third highest polluter in 2019, but its scale of emissions, 2.88 CO 2 Gigtonnes (Gt) as compared to the highest polluter (China at 10.6 Gt) and second highest (United States at 5 Gt), are not at all comparable. And, we have a huge need to grow our economy and to meet the energy needs of millions of our people. So, India did not have to take these aspiring global targets seriously to reduce our carbon emissions. This is why, it is not just a challenge to achieve for India but also a challenge for the world to follow suit. But what do these ambitious targets mean? Let me decode them: • India’s Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has done a projection for the country’s energy mix for 2030. According to this, India’s installed capacity of non-fossil energy for electricity generation — solar, wind, hydel and nuclear in 2019 was 134 GW and by 2030 it will be 522 GW. So, under this scenario and energy trajectory, India will be able to meet its 500 GW of non-fossil fuel energy capacity by 2030(1st NDC Target). • According to the CEA, in 2019, India was meeting 9.2% of its electricity generation from renewables. By 2021, with an increase in renewable energy capacity to 102 GW the generation had increased to roughly 12 per cent and so, it means that we need to increase this to meet the 50% electricity generation target by 2030 & then the installed capacity will have to increase from the planned 450 GW to 700 GW. If we consider hydroelectricity as part of renewables — as it is considered globally — then we will need to increase new renewable capacity to 630 GW which is definitely achievable. • India’s target and energy plan for 2030 also implies that India will restrict its coal-based energy; currently, roughly 60 GW of coal thermal power is under construction and in the pipeline. According to CEA, India’s coal capacity will be 266 GW by 2030 — which is an addition of 38 GW (which is roughly, what is under construction currently). This means India has stated that it will not invest in new coal beyond this is Okay. • According to the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE)’s projections India’s CO 2 generation in a business-as-usual scenario will be 4.48 Gt in 2030. But according to NDC target, India will cut its carbon emission by 1 billion tons (1 Gt) and therefore, our emissions in 2030 will be 3.48 Gt. which is