Cement Manufacturers Association (CMA)

To provide technical input to the work, an expert advisory group was formed of sector experts from industry, academia and NGOs. This development process included a month-long public consultation to ensure the criteria and guidance are projects follow strict governance whereby neither funders nor expert advisory group members have the power to approve completed in autumn 2022. How emissions scenarios for 1.5 º C were determined for the cement sector possible 1.5 C emissions scenarios for all sectors in its Pathways to Net-Zero: reviewed estimates of the remaining emissions budget, top-down mitigation scenarios, and sectoral studies to determine 1.5 C-aligned pathways at the global and sectoral level. According to the IPCC, the remaining budget to limit global warming to 1.5 C with a 50% probability is about 500 GT of CO (IPCC 2021 ). In aggregate, 1.5 C-aligned pathways used by budget and reach net-zero CO at the global level by 2050, under the assumption of at least 1-4 GT CO removal per year by developed a cross-sector emissions corridor that covers CO , CH , and N O emissions from energy supply, buildings, industry and transport based on published studies and expert judgement. Summary determined that the range of 1.5 C-algined cumulative 2020-2050 emissions for cement in the literature is 35 - 41 GT Co Therefore, emissions scenarios with these cumulative emissions (or lower) could be considered as a potential scenario for 1.5 C science-based target-setting by the Emissions scenarios for science-based target-setting should meet the criteria of plausibility (credibility of narrative), responsibility (reduced risk of not meeting the 1.5 C goal), objectivity (not biased towards any particular industry or organization) and consistency (they should have a strong internal logic). Two sources of emissions scenarios for the cement sector that met the requirements discussed in the Pathways to Net-Zero: available when the project was initiated were the One Earth Climate Model (Teske et al. 2020 ) and the IEA Net Zero by 2050 report (IEA 2021 ). Of these two, the IEA Net Zero by 2050 report was chosen as the most suitable scenario for 1.5 C science-based target setting for cement as it provided a more detailed narrative for how emissions reductions might be achieved, lower residual emissions in 2050 and more up-to-date base year data. Details underlying emissions scenarios: sector activity and decarbonization levers The IEA Net Zero by 2050 report provides data for direct CO emissions from the cement industry globally (Figure 1), as well as cement production volumes (Figure 2). Figure 1: Absolute scope 1 emissions according to IEA Net Zero 1.5 C pathway for the global cement industry 2500 2000 2020 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2025 1500 1000 500 Mt co 2 0 Page 9