Cement Energy Environment

45 CO 2 Emissions up to 2050 The potential for reduction of direct CO 2 emissions gives different results through time, reflecting both existing demand and the degree of maturity and penetration of solutions suggested for the sector. Using as a basis 40 Mt of CO 2 emitted by the Brazilian cement industry in 2014, emissions could reach around 66 Mt of CO 2 in 2050, if no mitigating action is adopted (“6°C scenario”). However, this value could fall to 44 Mt of CO 2 in the same year from a combination of measures suggested in this Roadmap (“2°C Scenario”). This represents a growth in emissions of only 10% on the current volume, against an increase in projected cement production of around 65% in the period. Under these conditions, the specific emissions would go from the current 564 kg CO 2 /t cement to 375 kg CO 2 /t cement in 2050, a reduction of 33%. In terms of emissions accumulated throughout the whole period, comparing the two scenarios, it would be possible to avoid the emission of 421 Mt of CO 2 . The chief factor contributing to this reduction is clinker substitution, with 290 Mt of CO 2 mitigated between 2014 and 2050 (or 69%). The use of less carbon intensive fuels, as the sector migrates from petroleum coke towards biomass and waste, contributes 55 Mt of CO 2 of this total (13%). Energy efficiency measures and innovative technology such as CCUS each account for 38 Mt of CO2 (9%). Key message: By impacting as much on emissions of calcination as on the bluring of fuel, clinker substitutes will contribute a large part of the reduction on CO2 emissions compared to other options. Source: IEA modelling results for the evolution of the share of alternative fuels. Figure 13: Reduction of direct CO 2 emissions per strategy, “2°C Scenario” comapred with“6°C Scenario”. Mt CO 2 564 552 485 485 Clinker substitutes (69%) Alternative Fuels (13%) 2014 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 Energy E ciency (9%) Innovative Technologies & CCUS (9%) Emission Intensity (kg CO 2 /t cement) 414 6°C Scenario 66Mt 44Mt 2°C Scenario CO 2 Reduction 375