Cement, Energy and Environment

ozone. The largest changes , however, occur in the intensity of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field. • Reconstructions of ancient climates reveal a close correlation between solar magnetic activity and solar irradiance (or brightness), on the one hand, and temperatures on earth, on the other. Those correlations are much closer than the relationship between carbon dioxide and temperature. • Cosmic rays could provide the mechanism by which changes in solar activity affect climate. During periods of greater solar magnetic activity, greater shielding of the earth occurs, resulting in less cosmic rays penetrating to the lower atmosphere, resulting in fewer cloud condensation nuclei being produced, resulting in fewer and less reflective low-level clouds occurring, which leads to more solar radiation being absorbed by the surface of the earth, resu lting (finally) in increasing near-surface air temperatures and global warming . • Strong correlations between solar variability and precipitation, droughts, floods, and monsoons have all been documented in locations around the world. Once again, these correlations are much stronger than any relationship between these weather phenomena and C02. • The role of solar activity in causing climate change is so complex that most theories of solar forcing must be considered to be as yet unproven. But it would also be appropriate for climate scientists to admit the same about the role of rising atmospheric C0 2 concentrations in driving recent global warming. Chapter 6. Observations: Extreme Weather • The IPCC predicts that a warmer planet will lead to more extreme weather, characterized by more frequent and severe episodes of drought, flooding , cyclones, precipitation variability, storms, snow, storm surges, temperature variability, and wildfires. But has the last century - during which the IPCC claims the world experienced more rapid warming than any time in the past two millennia - experienced significant trends in any of these extreme weather events? • Droughts have not become more extreme or erratic in response to global warming. Real-world evidence from Africa, Asia, and other continents find no trend toward more frequent or more severe droughts. In most cases, the worst droughts in recorded meteorological history were much milder than droughts that occurred periodically during much colder times. • Floods were more frequent and more severe during the Little Ice Age than they have been during the Current Warm Period. Flooding in Asia , Europe, and North America has tended to be less frequent and less severe during the twentieth century. • The IPCC says "it is likely that future tropica l cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increase of tropical sea surface temperatures." But despite the supposedly "unprecedented" warming of the twentieth century, there has been no increase in the intensity or frequency of tropical cyclones globally or in any of the specific oceans. • A number of real-world observations demonstrate that E1 Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during the latter part of the twentieth century were not unprecedented in terms of their frequency or magnitude. Long-term records suggest that when the earth was significantly warmer than it is currently, ENSO events were substantial ly reduced or perhaps even absent. • There is no support for the model-based projection that precipitation in a warming world becomes more variable and intense. In fact, some observational data suggest just the opposite, and provide support for the proposition that precipitation responds more to cyclical variations in solar activity. • As the earth has warmed over the past 150 years, during its recovery from the global chill of the Little Ice Age, there has been no significant increase in either the frequency or intensity of stormy weather. • Between 1950 and 2002, during wh ich time the air's C0 2 concentration rose by 30