Cement, Energy and Environment

literature for these predictions and considerable evidence to support an opposite prediction: That weather would be less extreme in a warmer world. Chapter 7 examines the biological effects of rising C0 2 concentrations and warmer temperatures. This is the largely unreported side of the global warming debate, perhaps because it is unequivocally good news. Rising C0 2 levels increase plant growth and make plants more resistant to drought and pests. It is a boon to the world's forests and prairies, as well as to farmers and ranchers and the growing populations of the developing world. Chapter 8 examines the IPCC's claim that C0 2 -induced increases in air temperature will cause unprecedented plant and animal extinctions, both on land and in the world's oceans. We find there little real-world evidence in support of such claims and an abundance of counter evidence that suggests ecosystem biodiversity will increase in a warmer and COrenriched world. Chapter 9 challenges the IPCC's claim that C0 2 - induced global warming is harmful to human health. The IPCC blames high- temperature events for increasing the number of cardiovascular-related deaths, enhancing respiratory problems, and fueling a more rapid and widespread distribution of deadly infectious diseases, such as malaria, dengue and yellow fever. However, a thorough examination of the peer– reviewed scientific literature reveals that further global warming would likely do just the opposite and actually reduce the number of lives lost to extreme thermal conditions. We also explain how C02 induced global warming would help feed a growing global population without major encroachment on natural ecosystems , and how increasing production of biofuels (a strategy recommended by the IPCC) damages the environment and raises the price of food. The research summarized in this report is only a small portion of what is available in the peer– reviewed scientific literature. To assist readers who want to explore information not contained between the covers of this volume, we have included Internet hyperlinks to the large and continuously updated databases maintained by the Centre for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change at www.co2science.org Key findings by chapter Chapter1. Global Climate Models and Their Limitations • The IPCC places great confidence in the ability of general circulation models (GCMs) to simulate future climate and attribute observed climate change to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. • The forecasts in the Fourth Assessment Report were not the outcome of validated scientific procedures. In effect, they are the opinions of scientists transformed by mathematics and obscured by complex writing. The IPCC's claim that it is making "projections" rather than "forecasts" is not a plausible defense. • Today's state-of-the-art climate models fail to accurately simulate the physics of earth's radiative energy balance, resulting in uncertainties "as large as, or larger than, the doubled C0 2 forcing." • A long list of major model imperfections prevents models from properly modelling cloud formation and cloud-radiation interactions, resulting in large differences between model predictions and observations. • Computer models have failed to simulate even the correct sign of observed precipitation anomalies, such as the summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian region. Yet it is understood that precipitation plays a major role in climate change. Chapter 2. Feedback factors and radiative forcing • Scientific research suggests the model-derived temperature sensitivity of the earth accepted by the IPCC is too large. Corrected feedbacks in the climate system could reduce climate sensitivity to values that are an order of magnitude smaller. • Scientists may have discovered a connection between cloud creation and sea surface temperature in the tropics that creates a "thermostate-like control" that automatically vents excess heat into space. If confirmed, this could totally compensate for the warming influence of all anthropogenic C02 emissions experienced to date, as well as all those that are anticipated to occur in the future. • The IPCC dramatically underestimates the total cooling effects of aerosols. 27