Cement, Energy and Environment

In general, the IPCC fails to consider important scientific issues, several of which would upset its major conclusion - that "most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-with century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations(emphasis in the original]." The IPCC defines "very likely" as at least 90 per cent certain. They do not explain how they derive this number. The IPCC also does not define the word "most," nor do they provide any explanation. The IPCC does not apply generally accepted methodologies to determine what fraction of current warming is natural, or how much is caused by the rise in greenhouse gases (GHG). A comparison of "fingerprints" from best available observations with the results of state-of-the– art GHG models leads to the conclusion that the (human– caused) GHG contribution is minor. This fingerprint evidence, though available, was ignored by the IPCC. The IPCC continues to undervalue the overwhelming evidence that, on decadal and century-long time scales, the Sun and associated atmospheric cloud effects are responsible for much of past climate change. It is therefore highly likely that the Sun is also a major cause of twentieth– century warming, with anthropogenic GHG making only a minor contribution. In addition, the IPCC ignores, or addresses imperfectly, other science issues that call for discussion and explanation. These errors and omissions are documented in the present report by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC). The report is divided into nine chapters that are briefly summarized here, and then more fully described in the remainder of this summary. Chapter1 describes the limitations of the IPCC's attempt to forecast future climate conditions by using computer climate models. The IPCC violates many of the rules and procedures required for scientific forecasting, making its "projections" of little use to policy makers. As sophisticated as today's state-of-the-art models are, they suffer deficiencies and shortcomings that could alter even the very sign (plus or minus, warming or cooling) of earth's projected temperature response to rising atmospheric C0 2 concentrations. If the global climate · models on which the IPCC relies are not validated or reliable, most of the rest of the AR4, while it makes for fascinating reading, is irrelevant to the public policy debate over what should be done to stop or slow the arrival of global warming. Chapter 2 describes feedback factors that reduce the earth's temperature sensitivity to changes in atmospheric C0 2 . Scientific studies suggest the model-derived temperature sensitivity of the earth for a doubling of the pre-industrial C0 2 level is much lower than the IPCC's estimate. Corrected feedbacks in the climate system reduce climate sensitivity to values that are an order of magnitude smaller than what the IPCC employs. Chapter 3 reviews empirical data on past temperatures. We find no support for the IPCC's claim that climate observations during the twentieth century are either unprecedented or provide evidence of an anthropogenic effect on climate. We reveal the methodological errors of the "hockey stick" diagram of Mann et a/. , evidence for the existence of a global Medieval Warm Period, flaws in the surface– based temperature record of more modern times, evidence from highly accurate satellite data that there has been no net warming over the past 29 years, and evidence that the distribution of modern warming does not bear the "fingerprint" of an anthropogenic effect. Chapter 4 reviews observational data on glacier melting, sea ice area variation in precipitation and sea level rise . We find no evidence of trends that could be attributed to the supposedly anthropogenic global warming of the twentieth century. Chapter 5 summarizes the research of a growing number of scientists who say variations in solar activity, not greenhouse gases, are the true driver of climate change. We describe the evidence of a solar-climate link and how these scientists have grappled with the problem of finding a specific mechanism that translates small changes in solar activity into larger climate effects. We summarize how they may have found the answer in the relationship between the sun, cosmic rays and reflecting clouds. Chapter 6 investigates and debunks the widespread fears that global warming might cause more extreme weather. The IPCC claims global warming will cause (or already is causing) more droughts, floods , hurricanes, storms, storm surges, heat waves, and wildfires. We find little or no support in the peer-reviewed 26