Cement, Energy and Environment

PREDICTIONS OF AR4 Global averagesurface temperature could rise to 4.8°Cby2100 6.0 ,........................ -r....--............-..-..............- .... - Historical 4 · 0 - RCP2.6 0 - RCP8.5 t.. 2.0 0.0 -2.0 .._........... _.__._...L.L....__......... --&.._._......... ....._..._J 1950 2000 2050 2100 Mean over 2081-2100 I "' I co ... ou Ill ·a: .10 10 .r ... -n.U Nua: C>.a: u a: Northern hemisphere springsea ice extent will dip with t1zerise in global mean surface temperature 10.0 ,.....___ "r'T___...,.____ 8.0 (;' ] 6.0 ~ = 4.0 2.0 --------- 0.0 ...._.___....___ ..LL__...... _......;;;a;.o 1950 2000 2050 2100 -- "' •\1\0I.n N • . . Q. ~\D co un.n.n. a: uuu a:a:a: \ The world, however, continues to ignore these warnings. At the 19th UN climate change CoP held at Warsaw, the report of the Working Group I (AR5) was acknowledged, but not acted on. The Warsaw warp The Warsaw climate talks, a preparatory round leading to the CoP in 2015 in Paris where a new deal on climate change is supposed to be signed, was tagged as a procedural conference. Only few outcomes were expected, but each of them significant in their ability to influence the level of ambition and trust needed to keep a 2015 deal within reach . The major expectation was to lay a foundational framework for the deal in 2015. However, right from the first day, the conference was overshadowed by the debate on loss and damage (L&D) arising out of climate change. Typhoon Haiyan, which devastated parts of the Philippines just few days before the start of the CoP, became the catalyst for the demand for a separate mechanism to pay for L&D in developing countries. Extreme weather events such as cyclones and Global ocean surface pH, indicating acidification, will speed up floods and slow onset events like sea level rise are 8.2 r--~12-+............ 9 ~ ----~--~ ·c: 8.0 ~ :l J: a. ~ 7.8 7.6 ...._.___ ..LL____._____, 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year / According to the projections made by AR4, global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 2oC relative to 1850-1900 (see Figure: Predictions of AR4). In a business as-usual scenario, the temperature could rise to 3.6-4.8°C by 2100. The result of this temperature rise would be catastrophic. • Global mean sea level could rise by 0.26-0.98 metre (m) during 2081-2100 relative to 1986- 2005. • Acidification of oceans will accelerate. • Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and thin. The Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover will decrease during the 21st century as global mean surface temperature rises. • Global glacier volume will further decrease, endangering water security in countries like India. now imposing huge losses on lives and livelihoods of communities across the developing world. At the 2012 Doha CoP, the developed world accepted the principle of L&D for the first time. They also agreed to set up a mechanism to address the issue of L&D. However, at Warsaw, talks on L&D broke down due to disagreement between the developed and developing countries on the nature and structure of the L&D mechanism. Developing countries demanded a separate mechanism to compensate for L&D; this was to reinforce the point that loss and damage is beyond adaptation' . Developed countries , however, insisted that it be addressed under existing mechanisms like the Adaptation Framework set up under the 201 0 Cancun Agreement, to deny the special status that a separate mechanism would ensure. Ultimately, the developed world lodged two wins: it not only secured the mechanism under the Adaptation Framework, it also refused exclusive funds for L&D. The only consolation for developing countries was a review of the mechanism in 2016. But pushing the L&D mechanism to 2016 means that the least developing countries and small island states, that have the most interest in the L&D mechanism, will reach Paris with dissatisfaction and a trust deficit. This does not augur well for the 2015 deal. I '