Cement Energy and Environment

(' trends that infrastructure will follow so that we are able to diagnose future infra areas of promise and caution , in order to put money where it should be. Mega trends that are here to stay In today's world some of the most striking mega trends that are bound to change the course of global infrastructure development are expected to be guided by how following factors manifest themselves: • Demographic shifts • Shift in global economic power INFRASTRUCTURE: TRENDS North America ...... ...... .. ,.\ Asia , Tilt deploymeat of demend-tldl meniiiiiii!II'I-IIIJY MiddleEast & Alrtca Energy llflclttlcy meeaurtt ~tgurc '· Top lcch~obgtCDitmpoct~ on l'owcr & Uttltilc~ by rcq•on • Rapid urbanization • Climate change and resource scarcity • Technological breakthroughs Since last few years It has been observed by several research firms (KPMG/ PWC/BAIN/Frost/ WB etc) that there has been a perceptible worldwide shift in the above factors, which will be crucial in determining the developmental map of infrastructure (class & type& geography) in coming years and decades. Each has brought out and progressively updated the trends developing in global infra to enable stakeholders have foresight into what the future is going to look like. The right answer to this would evolve by a prudent holistic analysis of the factual changes to arrive at future trends in global infrastructure needs in different geographies. It is to strategically apply the mind to identify what trend will prevail in which scenario. To qualify the aforesaid it may be pertinent to briefly touch on each factor to get a feel of what is being said. Demographic and social change In many ways, demographics is destiny. It is not the only force that drives change in our future, but it is the central one. After all, you can't have an economy without people. Important aspect of demographics is where people will want to live. For more than a century, people have been leaving the rural areas of the world and moving into the urban centers. This megatrend continues unabated The demographic profile will dictate the infrastructure facility blend that will be needed to cater to the trending demographic profile. By 2025, we'll have added another billion people to reach about 8 billion, with the over-65s the fastest-growing group. But there will be sharp regional variations: Africa's population is projected to double by 2050, while Europe's is expected to shrink. Europe, Asia and Latin America will need more women and elderly people in their workforces, together with higher immigration. Africa's younger population offers a demographic dividend but only given the right policy responses. And the time frame is tight. France took a century to double the share of over- 60s in its workforce from 7% to 14%. China, India and Brazil face doing it within three decades. In regions with ageing populations, such as Europe, a further challenge is soaring healthcare costs related to chronic diseases and caring for the elderly. According to the EU, 30% to 40% of healthcare expenses are already being spent on people aged 65 or above. As the share of this group in the overall population continues to rise, the costs of caring for them will also increase putting social and health care systems under intensifying pressure. Shift in Economic Power On current trends, the aggregate purchasing power of the 'E7' emerging economies China, India, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey and Indonesia will overtake that of the G7 by 2030. 29