CEE April-June 2012

Environment Protection & Resource Management Climate Change & Global Warming CLIMATE CHANGE AND RENEWABLE ENERGY IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation, 2011 As emission rates substantially exceed natural removal rates, concentrations of C0 2 will continue to increase, which will raise global mean temperature. In the absence of additional climate polides, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected in 2007 that global average temperature will rise over this century by about 1.1°C to 6.4°C. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with the provision of energy services are a major cause of climate change. The IPCC 4 1 h Assessment Report 2007, concluded that "Most of the observed increase in global average temperature since the mid 20 111 century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. " Concentration of C0 2 have continued to grow since the Report to about 390 ppm C0 2 or 39 per cent above pre industrial levels by the end of 2010. The global average temperature has increased 111 by 0.76°C (0.57° to 0.95°C) ~ between 1850 to 1899 and !'- - 2001 to 2005 and the ~ warming trend has increased significantly over the last 50 years. While the current IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation focuses on the energy sector, forest cleaning and burning and land use j ~II - " -o Ill g ::5 ( ...u l ud change and the release of non C0 2 gases from industry, commerce and agriculture also significantly contribute to global warming. An extensive review of long-term scenarios revealed that economic growth is expected to lead to a significant increase in gross domestic product (GDP) during the 21 51 century associated with a corresponding increase in the demand for energy services. Also carbon intensity (the amount of C02 emissions per unit of primary energy) is, with few exceptions, expected to decrease as well. In addition to an investigation of potentially irreversible abrupt changes in the climate system, the IPCC assessed the adverse impacts of such climate change (and the associated sea level rise and ocean acidification ) on water supply, ecosystems, food security, human health and coastal settlements. The Cancun Agreements (2010) call for limiting global average temperature rise, to not more than 2°C above pre– industrial values and agreed to consider a goal of 1.5° C. GHG concentrations would need to be in the range of 445 to 490 ppm C02 eq in order to be confident of achieving and equilibrium temperature increase of only ~C to 2.4°C. This in turn implies that global emissions of C02 will need to decrease 1q~n 19.10 19 oll lq'-0 1%0 1 1 PO \'nr l'l~U 19qo 2ono ( •l {CigJwnnc) 36