As per the production data obtained from the official site of the Economic Advisor, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, Cement industry has shown a CAGR of over 5% in the year 2018-19 from 2014-15 (Apr-Nov).
During the year 2018-19(Apr-Nov), industry has shown a double digit growth of over 14% as compared to a marginal growth of around 1% in the year 2017-18 (Apr-Nov).
For the remaining 4 months of the financial year 2018-19 (Dec-Mar), we have assumed consecutive growth between 3-4% on M-o-M basis. This makes the estimated cement growth of India to around 10-11%, taking the overall cement production to 330 million tonnes for FY19 as compared to around 298 million tonnes in FY18, a growth of 6.33%.
There has been recorded positive growth in 2014-15 (5.91%), 2015-16 (4.62%) barring negative growth in the year 2016-17 (-1.23%). During the period 2018-19(Apr-Mar), the CAGR was around over 5% from 2014-15 (Apr-Mar).
If we see the growth in last two quarter of the year 2018-19, there has been a double digit growth, which can be seen in the current quarter also.
Monthwise/Quarterwise data is given in the table as follows:
High growth in cement industry during 2018-19 can be attributed to a bouquet of factors, largely related to demand. The growth has been led by:
- Higher government spending on infrastructure, Ports, Railway Corridors, Smart Cities, affordable housing, irrigation sector, etc
- Revival of the Kerala markets after the devastating floods
- Faster execution of the projects particularly due to election year
- Various incentives (tax benefits, low interest rates, etc) for affordable housing by the Government
- Income boost for rural people accorded by the Government picked-up rural cement demand
- Lowered cement prices
Key reasons for capacity expansion
Concomitantly, an increased consolidation and capacity addition is visible in the cement industry on expectation of a revival in demand growth.
Should the previous trend continue, we can expect the growth in demand to be consistent over the short term, especially till the end of financial year 2018-19.The cement sector can be expected to register a growth of 10-11% in the fiscal year 2018-19. It may be relevant to review the future outlook in the second quarter 2019-20, given that the national election would be completed and the policy perspective of the changed government is evident.